2024 Electoral College Ratings: The Rise of Kamala

Going over the current national map for our brand-new race.

You know, Biden wanted to debate. If we didn't have a debate, he'd still be there. Can you imagine if we didn't have a debate? Why the hell did I debate him?

— Former President Donald J. Trump, August 9th, 2024

After all this time, the 2024 election has officially begun. Both tickets for both parties are now fully settled, with Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz making up the Democratic side and former President Donald Trump and Ohio Senator JD Vance making up the Republican side. In a sense, it’s the matchup you’d expect, because both sides get exactly what they want. Democrats get to run the non-Biden Democrat they’ve always said they preferred, while Republicans get the third Trump run they’ve been so desperate for. It’s also completely unbelievable. Just one month ago, far past the time range when major ticket swaps have occurred in the past, the matchup appeared to be set, and in a manner that decisively favored Republicans. Democrats were shackled to a historically unpopular crypt keeper, while Republicans were seeing their best numbers in decades under a Donald Trump who had countless potential running mates who could have augmented his appeal.

Now, everything has changed. With Biden out, Kamala in, and Trump shackling himself to Senator Groyper, the election has dramatically transformed, suddenly looking the best it has in years for Democrats. We’ll go over the reasons as to why this has happened and how it may change over the next few months. But now, in this period of relative quiet—after the chaos of the ticket swaps and veepstakes, but before the DNC and the debates—I think it’s a good moment to take stock of where we are. I declared a few weeks ago that I was of the belief that Kamala was the favorite to win, and I still very much am. But what, exactly, does that look like? What is the state of the map? How solid is her position, and what are her potential paths to victory? I’ll get there in a moment, but first, to truly appreciate what has happened over the past few weeks, it’s best to look at just how fucked things were under Biden.

The Official Hypothetical Biden v. Trump State Ratings Map