2028 Democratic Power Rankings: The Fall of Kamala

Looking over the state of the 2028 Democratic pre-primary in light of surprisingly fluid polls.

(Credit for the voiceover for this article goes to the great Samuel Lipson)

When I wrote my article taking an early look at the 2028 Democratic primary in March, I didn’t expect to update it for a long while. By that point, primary polling had been static for nearly five months, with every survey since November showing Kamala Harris far ahead of a split field of rivals. Even if this was inevitably going to change at some point, the nation’s liberal voters were providing us with no signs of what that change would, or even could, be. While there were some signs that their mindset was drastically different from what it had been in prior elections, this wasn’t manifesting in the polls, and it wasn’t at all clear when it would start doing so.

During the month of April, however, something different occurred. Over the span of just a few weeks, the Democratic field saw more movement than it had in months. Some prospective candidates who had put a great deal of effort into advertising themselves were finally rewarded for it, which told us a lot about what voters may want. Others who put in even greater efforts were met with no response, which told us even more. And of the vast majority of these changes came at the expense of one Kamala D. Harris, the beleaguered polling leader and out-of-work politician whose approach appears more out of step with her party with each passing week.

As Harris’ standing has faltered and voter preferences have become clearer, we now have more than enough new information to substantially update these power rankings—this time with a top three that’s much less depressing than the last one. Here’s the newly updated list of the top 10 contenders for the Democratic nomination in 2028.

(Dis)honorable Mentions

Like last time, this list will begin with names that didn’t make the top 10 but are still notable in some other way, whether it’s because they were previously on it, barely missed it, or have received substantial recent attention.

• Gov. Gavin Newsom: Previously ranking at the bottom of the top 10, the bulk of my analysis of Newsom in my previous piece consisted of reasons as to why I was very bearish on him in spite of the substantial coverage and then-decent polling he enjoyed. Since then, those reasons have been vindicated. Given that several other Democrats have seen substantial polling boosts as a result of their bids for attention, the silence Newsom has seen in response to his speaks volumes. His podcast was met with a flatly negative response, and his most high-profile piece of political advice since then—that Democrats should have ignored the illegal deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia—has been proven to be both morally reprehensible and politically incompetent. No matter which way the party goes, it’s very hard to see him as the ultimate destination.

• Sen. Cory Booker: It’s very easy to be a sudden believer in Cory Booker. Wholly irrelevant just over one month ago, the New Jersey Senator and 2020 also-ran received a significant boost in support after his record-breaking Senate speech on April 1st. This feat would be far more striking if it weren’t a clear exception to a longstanding rule: that nobody outside of New Jersey really cares about him or what he has to say. As things stand, his success is far more easily ascribed to a broad desire for action and spectacle than anything innate to him. This leaves Booker still on the outside looking in, notwithstanding the off chance that he winds up as the sole major Black candidate running two years from now.

• Stephen A. Smith: Despite receiving a quasi-endorsement for a 2028 run from no less than Donald Trump himself, recent polling shows Stephen A.’s standing among Democrats to be almost bizarrely weak. Despite having done nothing other than talk about sports during his career, he is the sole prospective Democratic candidate to be in the net negatives among the party’s base. While it’s not unprecedented for a figure this hated to end up winning a major-party nomination in the end, it’s hardly common, either.

#10: Rep. Jasmine Crockett (New Entry)

Credit: Gage Skidmore

Faction: Progressive Election Denialism