2028 Democratic Presidential Power Rankings: Socialism Rising Edition, Part II

Rounding out the state of play for the 2028 nomination in light of the Democratic base's unprecedented revolt

If there is any one thing that sums up how the past 18 months have gone for the Democratic establishment, it is that they lost control of yet another race in yet another swing state in just the time between the publication of the two halves of this list. All of the old excuses—that the left could only win primaries with low turnout, or in a cobalt blue district, or by running a generationally charismatic master of new media—are gone now. What we are seeing is a full-scale, across-the-board revolt, unencumbered by the constraints of geography, electability, and even candidate quality that kept the left on the margins for so long.

In the first part of this list, we went over what this ongoing grassroots revolution meant directly for those on the outer edges of contention for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. In this section, our look at the race’s top contenders will consider the biggest potential impact of the ongoing left-wing revolt: how it could structurally change the party establishment going into 2028. If, as polling indicates is overwhelmingly likely, Abdul El-Sayed and Francesca Hong win their primaries this month, it will spark an immense amount of finger-pointing and recriminations within what remains of the Democratic establishment. This will be largely unproductive, but it will also provide a massive opportunity for one particular faction: the Lis Smithian safe-populist liberal center. That side had sought a middle ground in the Michigan Senate race itself with the candidacy of Mallory McMorrow, and they had been firmly rebuked by a party establishment that had already decided that Stevens was the only way to go. While McMorrow’s campaign wasn’t exactly centered around warnings that Stevens was doomed to lose to El-Sayed at the hands of an angry base, it won’t be difficult at all for her former backers to reframe her as a Cassandra who could have prevented the left’s ascension by appealing to the angry liberals that Stevens simply couldn’t reach.

This will be a completely unfalsifiable exercise in alternative history, and it will also be extremely comforting to the powers-that-be. Because of this, it will become very influential very fast. Sympathetic pieces that might have otherwise been written about Josh Shapiro’s and Mark Kelly’s will instead focus on more broadly palatable options with more plausible appeals to partisan liberals. Approaches towards the left will shift towards managing it and neutering its appeal instead of simply stamping it out. And at the highest levels, there will be even more urgency and pressure to recruit the party’s rare few dream candidates, no matter how reluctant they might be to run. It’s a short list that has long included one Georgia Democrat, and it now includes another—one whose appeal is so potent that they immediately start off in the top five in their first inclusion in these rankings.

Who is this mysterious new name who entered the top tier so quickly? Who now stands at #1? Who else is at the peak, and what does it mean for their prospects that everyone in politics is now obsessing over an ascendant socialism in the midst of a blue wave? All of these questions and more will be answered here.

The Top 5

#5: James Talarico (🔻4)