2028 Democratic Presidential Power Rankings: Blue Tsunami Edition

Re-evaluating the state of play for the first time since the start of the Iran War

To provide some perspective about how much has changed in American politics in a very short span of time, I’d like to call back to the most recent edition of this series. Published just over two months ago in February, that edition was squarely focused on the topic that, at the time, was at the front of mind for every political observer in the country: the Texas Democratic Senate primary. Such was the state of analysis in those far-off days, back when everything was so familiar. For all of its supposedly revolutionary potential, the sum total of the entire right-wing populist project had been to just send us back to the days of 2018, with a broadly-but-not-historically-unpopular President facing off against a fractured opposition. In that light, the only real question left appeared to be what kind of approach a once-again-leaderless liberal base would take for their second bite at the apple. Ergo, an entire set of articles about the implications of one primary for one race in one state.

And then the war happened.

Averages courtesy of natesilver.net

There’s not too much I can add to what’s depicted here. Donald Trump’s approval rating on inflation—the defining issue of his entire 2024 campaign—has collapsed so thoroughly that the numbers have fallen quite literally below the chart. His net approval on the issue is worse than anything ever seen by any president at any point in their term, Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter included. This is more than just a betrayal, a mistake, or any other kind of political challenge that we’ve seen Trump hobble through before. It is a full-scale political collapse that has eviscerated MAGA as a concept. The load-bearing myth of the entire Trumpist project—that he is a bad man who nonetheless gets things done—has been completely and utterly shattered, left to moulder in the dustbin of history next to Biden’s pre-Afghanistan reputation as a competent elder statesman.

For the ever-closer Democratic primary, this means one thing above all: that it is now entirely possible, if not outright likely, that 2026 will be a full-on blue tsunami, one that surpasses the 2018 wave and sees Democrats win in places where they haven’t won in a generation. Here are the top ten most likely candidates to win the Democratic presidential nomination in this new world.

(Dis)honorable Mentions

Before we begin, let’s start with a few names that have either received substantial recent coverage or were ranked in previous lists but didn’t make the top ten this time.

• Rep. Jasmine Crockett: After an exciting and illuminating year of having Crockett in the top ten of these lists, it is now officially time to lay her 2028 ambitions to rest. From her start as a favorite of online 2024 election deniers to her meteoric rise to become a genuine political celebrity, we went on a truly incredible journey with her—one that, in one shining moment, seemed set to end with her gliding to a coveted Senate nomination and taking center stage as one of the leading characters of the 2026 midterms. Alas, it was not to be. After running a thoroughly inept campaign that played right into every negative impression of her as a politician and a person, she completely squandered her early lead and lost by a decisive margin. Now, she is going to be unemployed by the start of next year, with no clear path back to political relevance in the immediate future. While there is still so much to learn from her and her career, her personal story is over. A run to go straight from the U.S. House to the White House—something that actually could have been quite credible had she never put her name up for Senate—would only look pathetic after this.

• Sen. Chris Van Hollen: After having edged his way to the very bottom of the Top 10 in February’s list, Van Hollen now stands outside of it once again, largely because of how things have improved for him on another, entirely different front. Along with everything else that has occurred since late February, the past few months have seen Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s standing within his caucus reach an all-time low, courtesy of the politicians Democratic voters have chosen. From safe-seat candidates like Julia Stratton to challengers for must-win seats like Graham Platner, hardly any of the people that Schumer is currently relying on to win his party a new majority actually want him to lead it come 2027. Between this, the fact that he’s committing himself to a superminority position on top issues, and his own uncertain political future in New York State, the odds that Schumer will be forced out of his position come 2027 are very high. This provides an obvious and far easier path for Van Hollen to take a position of national leadership if he wants it. While the Maryland Senator is far from guaranteed to come out on top in a battle to succeed Schumer, the possibility that he could do so is enough to take him out of true top-tier contention. I doubt that he’s particularly upset about it.

The Top 10

#10: Former Sec. Pete Buttigieg (New) (Derogatory) (Far lower than the consensus, and I have good reason for it)