Can Republicans Defy the Odds in 2026?

Looking ahead to the next national election as the midterm cycle unofficially begins.

There is no substitute for winning in American politics. Sometimes, though, you can come pretty close. Whenever a party loses a presidential election in the U.S., no matter how large or small the margin, they are subsequently presented with an opportunity for a quick revival in the form of a wave year in the next midterm election. Far from simple consolation prizes, these midterm waves can completely change the course of political history. They restock depleted party benches with fresh talent, stop existing presidential agendas in their tracks, and lay the groundwork for the majorities of the future. In some cases, the gains can become so substantial that it is reasonable to wonder if the party in the White House would have been better off in the long run if they never came to power in the first place.

For the beleaguered and demoralized Democratic Party of today, the prospect of such a wave occurring in 2026 is the sole reason for optimism amidst the political wasteland of Trump 2.0. And as things stand, their bull case is remarkably straightforward. After just six months in office, Trump has already become quite unpopular, with rock-bottom approval ratings on the precise issues that won him the election. His winning 2024 coalition relied heavily on support from low-propensity voters who are unlikely to vote in 2026 and are defecting from his coalition at disproportionately high rates. Democrats have also proven themselves capable of running up the score against a Trump administration before; to this day, their 2018 blue wave stands still as by far the strongest cycle either party has seen over the course of the entire Trump era. If history is any guide, the party is already on track for a comeback that will overturn the existing order in D.C.

This all might give you a sense of deja vu. Only a few short years ago, an out-of-power Republican Party was heading into its own opposition midterm election with an even heftier set of advantages in tow. Joe Biden, the sitting president, was even less popular than Trump is now. Far from simply failing to live up to past promises, he was presiding a set of entirely new economic and overseas crises. The last time the GOP had been fortunate enough to enjoy such circumstances, they put together two commanding victories that moved American politics substantially to the right. But when 2022 actually came, they limped over the finish line, ultimately only putting together the barest of majorities in the House while outright losing governor’s mansions and Senate seats.

At the time, it was a moment of joy for the anti-Trump resistance. Now, this same GOP failure looms large over liberal hopes of a 2026 revival. What if what kept Republicans from running up the score in 2022 is a sword that cuts both ways? Are Democrats doomed to see a disappointing performance of their own no matter how badly Trump does? The institutional forecasting world appears entirely open to this possibility that this could happen. Even as Trump’s popularity has tanked, leading prognosticators are stubbornly refusing to project 2026 as anything more blue than a 2024 redux.

As someone who very much remembers how lonely it was to argue in favor of in-power-party prospects in 2022, it’s gratifying to see commentators finally recognize wave elections as not necessarily set in stone. As in all things, however, there is a risk in overfitting too much based just on what’s happened the most recently. The GOP’s failure at producing a red wave in 2022 didn’t just happen automatically. It was the product of specific factors and specific mistakes that are by no means guaranteed to reoccur. If Republicans are going to have a truly successful 2026, they will need to find their own path to making history.

So: what could such a path look like?

Option #1: Cheating

That’s right: this is the gerrymandering section. If you’ve been following the news over the past few weeks, you’ve almost certainly heard something about this newly ongoing process. If you’ve found it hard to follow, there’s a good reason for that: nothing even remotely like what we’re seeing now has ever happened before. Historically speaking, mid-decade redistricting almost always only happens as a result of court orders. When it has occurred on a purely partisan basis, it has never been on a systemic, nationally-organized scale involving tit-for-tat promises of retaliation. Because of this, the mainstream media—always insufficient in its coverage of gerrymandering even in the best of times—has so far been incapable of covering these rapid developments in a coherent way.

We will correct for that here. Below are the potential pickup opportunities for both parties off of redraws alone:

How Democrats Could Strike Back: