Dear readers,
Of the many things that have changed about my life since I became a father this March, one that I didn’t expect coming into that wonderful journey was getting more into sports than I had been in years. This stemmed from what might be an embarrassingly sentimental place—my son had been born right before the start of baseball season, so I decided to follow the Braves closely once again to watch something grow up alongside him—and it quickly grew to make following my teams my main hobby for the first time since I had been in college. An exciting process of rediscovery followed, wherein I caught up on all of the new stars, new contenders and new rules that I had missed over the years. Some changes were small. Some were big. Some were massive enough to make entire leagues feel as if they had entire completely new worlds. But across the board, from stem to stern, none were even remotely as jarring as the sheer extent to which gambling had been integrated into every aspect of the experience.
However cartoonish you can possibly imagine it being, the reality of this cultural colonization is somehow worse. To watch one of your teams these days is to buy a subscription to something called FanDuel Sports Network, view a broadcast saturated with graphics showing betting lines and event probabilities, and then go online to read “discussions” largely dominated by bettors pissing and moaning that one player or another didn’t convert their parlay. It’s embarrassing, it’s insufferable, and it’s been immensely effective. Over just the course of 2026 alone, the total trading volume on both Kalshi and Polymarket has increased several times over entirely as a result of sports betting, a clear and depressing vindication of the industry strategy of shameless oversaturation.
To these companies, the path forward is clear: run this exact same playbook over and over to take over as many aspects of life as they can. As they have gone forward with this effort, the past year has shown that their eyes are on one prize above all: conquering the world of American politics. The 2024 election got both Polymarket and Kalshi their start, and both companies fully intend to make the open race ahead of us in 2028 the first true “prediction markets election.” While this has predictably involved the same big-name deals with big-name networks that have been hallmarks of their takeover of global sports—think of how Harry Enten now always references gambling odds during his CNN segments for one particularly embarrassing and egregious example—it has also brought about something a bit different. This has been their signing of sponsorship deals with online commentators, some large but many quite small, as a way to reach to their target Gen Z consumer base.
I don’t necessarily begrudge (some) of these commentators for taking these deals. Making money talking about politics is hard for young people, especially today. While I was fortunate enough to start my writing here back when Substack was still virgin territory, aspiring pundits now need to compete against a large number of already well-established professional journalists and commentators who decamped to the site over the past few years and currently command the lion’s share of attention and subscriptions. It’s not easy. But if being in a position to turn down these sponsorships makes me privileged, I will use my privilege to promise you this: I will never, ever take money from Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other “prediction market.” I do not want to give a single one of my readers a reason to wonder if my analysis is based on my actual thoughts or opinions or the financial interests of a predatory industry. I do not want to reference any metric, betting odds or otherwise, outside of when they are actually needed. I do not want to make a mockery of my claim to be independent or the trust you all have placed in me to tell you the truth and represent your values.
If this all means that I will be missing out on a massive cultural wave, so be it. If it means I’m leaving money on the table, so be that too. You all deserve at least one person covering politics during the 2028 election who you can trust to be loyal to their readers and nobody else. I promise to you that I will be that person, even if it means I end up standing alone.
Always yours,
Ettingermentum I, father of Ettingermentum II
Hell yeah brother. I actually think you're riding another cultural wave: the backlash to all this fucking gambling content.
Ettingermentum II be proud that your father has integrity