Preliminary 2024 Senate Outlook, Part I: Democratic-leaning Seats
The situation for the Republican Party as it heads into the 2024 elections is tenuous, to say the least. Following their historically poor showing in 2022, they face the prospect of an extended, messy, and expensive primary that will lead into a general election where there are strong indications that they will lack their famed electoral college advantage of 2016 and 2020. The House map is even worse. While mid-decade redistricting decisions may provide them with a bit of a boost, they still face tall odds in their quest to once again win in the Biden districts that have given them their flimsy majority in the face of Presidential-year polarization and turnout. Even state-level races may elude them, as poor candidate recruitment could cost the party their chance to win back the North Carolina governorship following the term-limiting of Roy Cooper…
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