The Death of Trumpism-Without-Trump

How the biggest story of the 2024 election has already been written.

(Credit for the voiceover for this article goes to the great Samuel Lipson)

On the night of October 1st, 2024, the establishment far right dared to dream once again.

It was hard to blame them for wanting some hope. Senator JD Vance was on TV that night, and they really, really wanted him to do well. He was what they had spent years upon years dreaming of: a young Midwesterner with a compelling background, none of Trump’s personal toxicity, and a stronger commitment to Trumpist ideology than the man himself. In Vance, those tens of millions of Americans supposedly crying out for Trumpism-without-Trump—the former president’s policies supported by someone other than the former president—seemed to have their man. But from the moment he began his political career, Vance had failed to live up to expectations at every single turn. From his disastrous inaugural electoral performance as the Republican Senate nominee in Ohio to his atrocious rollout as VP, Vance didn’t just fail to win over voters alienated by Trump. He failed to win over much of Trump’s existing base. Instead of inaugurating an entirely new era of politics, he floundered to such an extreme degree that the big man himself was forced to say that VPs don’t really matter only two weeks after his selection.

All of this makes it somewhat understandable that conservative commentators were so excited when he put together a serviceable performance during his debate against Tim Walz. It doesn’t explain them thirsting over him—nothing could ever do that—but it does help contextualize why they declared his showing to be “the best political debate performance we’ve ever seen.” They are incredibly, unbelievably desperate, and they are right to feel that way. For as bad as they are, Vance’s flops over the past few months are only the tip of the iceberg. From the primary race to Senate campaigns to the Vice Presidential nomination, Trump’s imitators have failed at practically every chance they’ve been given. At the same time, Donald Trump himself, the very man who they held personally responsible for all of their past electoral failures, has begun to look like something many never thought he would be: indispensable for the right.

It’s here, before any votes have been officially counted, where I am ready to make a bold declaration. For as much uncertainty as there is about the eventual result of this year’s election, we can already declare its biggest loser: those on the right who have hoped to have their cake and eat it, too, regarding Trumpism. Here’s how the right’s self-styled intellectual class misunderstood their own victories, sabotaged their own appeal, and left their party with a very bleak future regardless of who wins this year.

At its core, everything about the Trumpism-without-Trump ideology—from its genesis to its most basic tenets to its eventual struggles—comes from a misunderstanding. This misunderstanding is very dramatic, very long-running, and could have been completely avoided had those committed to the ideology been more consistent. This misunderstanding comes in two parts: the idea that every success Trump has had is a vindication of far-right politics, and the idea that every failure he has had is a result of his unique personal failings. Both of these ideas contain some truth to them, and neither are all that objectionable by themselves. But when put together in just the right way, they have proven capable of leading people very, very astray.