The Official 2028 Democratic Power Rankings

A very early look at the best- and worst-positioned major contenders for the next election.

(Credit for the voiceover for this article goes to the great Samuel Lipson)

For the first time in 20 years, the Democratic Party is undergoing a truly open leadership contest. With each passing week, we have seen a new long-rumored contender not-so-subtly attempt to lay groundwork for a national campaign in 2028, no matter how long their odds might be. It’s hard to blame any of them for doing so. While countless losing political parties have faced crises in the past, there are few comparisons for what the current Democratic Party—now robbed of its raison d'être of stopping Trump—is going through now. Leaderless, purposeless, and disliked by all but its most hardcore partisans, the once-mighty institution is ripe for new leadership of practically any kind.

But for as wide as the potential field may be, it is very far from equal. So, just as I have gone over the differences in candidate quality in the past, this article will rank the top ten Democratic contenders by a simpler metric: how likely they are to actually win the nomination in 2028. Who actually has a clear path to the nomination? Who stands to be overshadowed? Who has been overhyped, and who has been overlooked? All of these questions will be answered here.

(Dis)honorable Mentions

Before we begin, let’s start with a few names that have received substantial recent coverage but didn’t make the top ten.

• Former Mayor/Ambassador Rahm Emanuel: In case you were still wondering how Democrats managed to lose two presidential elections to Trump, the fact that party elites are reportedly seriously considering an Emanuel 2028 campaign should be a good enough answer. Even for as incestuous and backwards-looking as Democrats have been, it would still be a tremendous shock for a has-been like Rahm to even register. With the moderate lane set to be clogged by a suite of far more credible and timely candidates, it’s near-impossible to see a path for Rahm’s brand of Bush-era centrism that didn’t even win out in its own time.

• Former Governor Andrew Cuomo: Even though faces very stiff competition, the success of Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral bid in New York City still stands out as one of the most depressing stories in politics right now. Given that he’s currently the runaway favorite to lead the largest city in the country, Cuomo’s path to national contention is, unfortunately, quite clear. Still, if an early lead in a NYC election was a guarantee for a win, we’d be talking about Mayor Andrew Yang’s chances somewhere later on this list. Unless and until Cuomo actually wins the primary, he’s very difficult to judge as a possible contender.

• Gov. Wes Moore: As one of many names on an extremely long list of sitting governors who are reportedly looking towards 2028, Maryland’s Moore starts in the least envious position. Given that he hasn’t won in a tough state, isn’t nationally known, and isn’t a billionaire, it’s difficult to see what his angle for 2028 is supposed to be. If he ends up winning, it will be solely through sheer force of personality, which is one of the hardest things to judge in advance. As of now, anyone who tells you they know how he is set to do is either unhealthily obsessed with a marginal figure or is lying to you.

• Sen. Chris Murphy: For all of his efforts to find an answer to his party’s woes, Murphy himself isn’t it. By refusing to fully embrace the progressive lane he’s spent years nudging towards, he’s left himself without a constituency. Things could change if he becomes more decisive, but for now, his fence-straddling is earning him no favors outside of Sunday shows.

Now, let’s get on to the top ten.

#10: Gov. Gavin Newsom