The Path to a Democratic Landslide

How Trump's conviction opens up a real (if narrow) lane for a Biden blowout in 2024.

Let me start off by saying something important: I am not a Joe Biden fanboy. Across the world of 2024 election coverage, you’ve undoubtedly seen countless articles with titles like this one claiming that whatever big event happened that week was going to finally shift the race in his favor. The reasons have ranged from everything to Trump’s indictments to the start of the Gaza war to just the author’s personal belief that Biden has been a good president. So far, none have ended up panning out. In spite of all of these events, the election has so far remained remarkably static. In light of this, many have chosen to dismiss any bearish takes of Trump’s chances as just another case of the boy who cried wolf. Some are even so convinced of his invulnerability (or desperate to believe that he will win) that they’ve gone as far as to say that his conviction will benefit him.

I believe the opposite, and I hope I have some credibility when I say I do. Unlike some other writers on this platform, I haven’t been blindly positive about Biden’s chances. While I’ve had him down as the race’s most likely winner (if only just barely), I’ve been more than adamant about his weaknesses as a candidate and open in my fears that they could hand Trump the election if unaddressed. At the same time, I have also done my best to stay aware of Trump’s strengths compared to his opponent without overhyping him or his wing of the Republican Party. This is my theory of the election: that it is a contest between two candidates who are some of the weakest possible choices for their respective parties, and that Trump is only winning it right now because he is perceived to be personally stronger and more capable than Biden.

This perspective has led me to the side of caution, which has worked out well. Over the past year, I have not been caught declaring something like the State of the Union to be THE turning point of the race, only to be rebutted by reality when the polls refuse to budge. I have also never stated that Trump has had the race on lock, only to be confronted with razor-thin leads that refuse to grow and countless mistakes both on and off the campaign trail. My assumption is that impressions of these two extraordinarily well-known men are already baked in, and that only truly major things (like the Israel-Gaza War, a dramatic increase in attention towards the election as it gets closer, or, potentially, the debates) are capable of truly changing things. But while this once led me to be bearish on Biden, it has (for now) led me to become more bullish for him.

To put it simply, I believe that Trump’s conviction this week matters. Not only could it have a meaningful immediate impact, but it also opens up a number of equally momentous opportunities down the line. If these opportunities go Biden’s way, they could combine to have a tremendous effect on the race, turning its core dynamic on its head and vaulting Biden to a strong lead by Election Day. In this article, I’ll go over what this golden path may look like.

Step One: A Conviction Bounce

If there is one thing to appreciate about the polling industry today—and there isn’t a lot—it is the speed of certain firms. In the past, it would take up to about a week to know the public’s reaction to political scandals. Now, we can get information within only a few days. Such has been the case since Trump’s conviction, where polling firms began collecting data the second that the jury read its decision. Now, the polls are coming out, giving us something of a picture of the post-conviction political world. So far, that world looks like this: