Trump Shouldn't Have Agreed To The Debate

The 45th President makes his first big mistake of the campaign.

One of the most important things to remember about American politics is that Donald Trump is very stupid. This is, of course, obvious—something that we all instantly comprehend upon seeing him. However, it can prove deceptively difficult to keep in mind, as there is quite a large industry of people who would very much rather have you think otherwise. On one side, there are Democratic strategists and politicians, still stinging from their loss in 2016, who would prefer you see them as outwitted by a masterful demagogue than as losers who choked the most winnable election in history. On the other side, there is the entire Republican Party, currently in its eighth straight year of Stockholm Syndrome-ing itself into thinking that they’re backing someone who has a real philosophy and worldview and isn’t just a 77-year-old manchild. Together, these two forces have worked overtime to present the 45th president as a legitimately formidable force and not an obvious moron who is the most consistently hated man in American political history.

This noise can be hard to ignore even when Trump is at his lowest, and over the past number of months, it’s never been harder to tune out. Ever since he took a consistent lead against his Democratic opponent at the end of 2023 (a career-first for him), it has been tempting to even the biggest Trump skeptics to consider that the former president has finally locked in. For as weak as his opponent is—and he’s really weak—it almost always takes two to tango in politics. Could it be that nine years of trial and error at the highest levels have turned Trump from an amateur-of-all-amateurs into something resembling a competent operator? Things like Project 2025 seemed to imply some level of organization and long-term planning around him, while his periodic attempts at “moderation” on issues like abortion also seemed to indicate that he may no longer see himself as above recognizing areas where he’s obviously weak. Given how often Democratic successes have been the product of Trump’s failures instead of the party’s own strengths, this possibility of an experienced, semi-competent New Trump appeared to be a cause for legitimate worry.

Well, worry no longer. If you may have been concerned that Trump in 2024 might actually understand the race he’s running in, his first big decision since clinching the nomination should put those fears to rest. For absolutely no reason, with every single out in the world available to him, Trump took Biden's bait in agreeing to a debate. Don’t listen to those who will tell you that it’s a distraction, or that Republicans will benefit from Democrats violating the sanctity of the Commission on Presidential Debates. Agreeing to the June debate was terrible for Trump, both for how it could directly impact his chances and for what it reveals about how stupid he still is. In this article, I’ll explain why.

I tried to find the worst-looking recent photo of Trump for this. Hopefully this works. Credit: Gage Skidmore.

Part I: Low-Energy Jeb and the Good Old Days of 2016