Ten Things I've Gotten Right (and Wrong) About Trump 2.0 So Far

A half-year-in-review of my writing under the new administration.

Election coverage is defined by a brutal honesty. Unlike other forms of political punditry, there is no easy way for commentators to play both sides or weasel out of a hard call when push comes to shove. In an “off year” like 2025, however, readers are not given such a clear standard to judge writers. Without the pressure of having to get an actual result right, pundits enjoy a period where their takes exist in the ether, never seriously judged for their insight or validity.

There are some writers who have made entire careers out of this journalistic dead zone. They spend their lives writing trendy, contradictory pieces that they hope nobody will remember more than a week after they are published. I do not wish to be such a writer. In the spirit of respect for my readers and subscribers, here’s an honest overview of my analyses of America under Trump 2.0 during its first six months in power: what I got right, what I got wrong, and why.

#1: I Was Right About…

The Libs Going Insane

If there was a single dominant political narrative after November 6th, 2024, it was that American liberals had been completely cowed by the results. While Trump’s first win came as a shock and only happened because of a constitutional technicality, his second win appeared to be far more robust. He won the popular vote, even if only with a plurality, and found a stunning level of acceptance from the same powerful figures who once shunned him. What once could be written off as a fluke, it was presumed, could no longer be denied—at least by anyone sane. Now assuredly forced to reckon with the permanency of Trumpism, how would liberals react to this new era? Would they moderate by a lot, or just a little? How many interest groups would they finally throw under the bus? Can ANYONE stop Rahm Emanuel in 2028?

Nobody considered the possibility that the libs could simply deny this—nobody, it seems, except for me. Skeptical of this suddenly dominant narrative, I spent the months after the election taking a deep dive into the online communities that now define American liberalism. It was an effort my TikTok For You page still hasn’t recovered from, and what I found blew away every expectation I had. Not only were liberals completely unmoved by Trump’s supposedly undeniable mandate, but they were becoming increasingly convinced that he hadn’t won at all. Although it wasn’t registering in early polling, the sheer volume of this content convinced me to do something I had never done before: write an article about an online trend.

Only just two months later, that risky choice now stands as one of my best early calls. Since I published that piece in late April, the once-budding liberal election denial movement has absolutely exploded in size across every corner of the internet. Now, it’s one of the most influential forces in Democratic politics. The once-miniscule 10% of Democrats who told pollsters that they saw Trump’s victory as illegitimate last November has grown to a stunning 41% of Harris voters. It’s the literal exact opposite of what practically every other pundit assumed would happen after Trump’s win, and it’s something that this newsletter is still completely alone in covering. Expect it to inevitably break into mainstream coverage at some point, and don’t forget who keyed in on it first.

#2: I Was Wrong About…

My Negativity Towards the Presidential Prospects of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez