The 2028 Democratic Presidential Power Rankings: Return of Woke Edition

Going over the primary outlook after the first full election cycle of the Trump era.

For the first time since the historic springtime collapse of Kamala Harris’s resounding early lead, the state of the race for the 2028 Democratic nomination has been somewhat calm for an extended period of time. When I last published my rankings on September 15th, the polls had Gavin Newsom in first, Harris in second, Pete and AOC at three and four and everyone else far behind at the bottom. Today, more than two months later, the averages are in the exact same place. Relative to past updates—ones that went over nothing less than the quickest collapse of any early frontrunner in primary history—there would seem to be little to talk about.

Yet it would also be quite hard to overstate just how much the political world has changed between then and now. Since mid-September and the present day, the reaction to the assassination of Charlie Kirk has come, gone, and been turned into a joke. The longest government shutdown in American history began and ended. A democratic socialist was officially elected to serve as the mayor of the largest city in the country. And—perhaps most importantly of all—Democrats massively overperformed polling and put up bona fide blue wave numbers in elections across the country.

In a word, the post-Liberation Day political equilibrium of Trump 2.0 was shattered. No longer does 2026 look set to be a close-run race to the bottom between two similarly-despised governing failures. For however much the American people might still distrust and dislike Democrats, their newfound hatred of Republicans appears to be overpowering everything else. Suddenly, abruptly, without any warning, a full-on 2018-sized blue wave is completely within the realm of possibility. Here’s how it changes an already-chaotic field.

(Dis)honorable Mentions

Before we begin, let’s start with a few names that have either received substantial recent coverage or were ranked at the top of the previous list but didn’t make the top ten this time.

• Governor JB Pritzker: While I have long treated Governor Pritzker quite generously in these lists—at one point, he ranked as high as #5 overall—the past two months have wrecked the once-compelling arguments for his strength. Not only will the recently-rediscovered fact that he once served on the AIPAC board of directors fatally wound his chances among a left that once stood to be his core constituency, the sheer level of disinterest in his public #resistance to Trump’s occupation of Chicago has been so damning that it makes all of his efforts look hopeless. When the predator-in-chief sent his goons to a California city, Gruesome Newsom easily turned it into a polling surge. Pritzker, meanwhile, is still statistically tied with Jon Stewart even after daring Trump to send him to jail on live television. Unless the issue of Israel completely disappears over the following years—something that I greatly doubt given how closely it has been connected to larger concerns of corruption and elite influence—I just don’t see the path for him.

• Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger: In my immediate reaction to the results on November 4th, I specifically mentioned Spanberger as someone who had about the best election night she could have imagined. But while the term-limited media darling may have made herself a leading VP pick of any imaginable nominee with her absurdly strong margin of victory, she still remains outside of the top spot in the rigidly-controlled, media-driven world of the capital-C Centrist lane. As the nation’s editorial boards have made clear, they still have another governor two states north of Spanberger’s in mind for their champion in 2028. In the case that his nasty allegedly-covered-up-a-murder business becomes too much to handle, however, Spanberger will very likely be one of the first names the powers that be call for as a pinch hitter. It’s worth keeping an eye on her.

The Top 10

#10: State Rep. James Talarico (New)