The 2028 Democratic Presidential Power Rankings: Newsomania

Adjusting my outlook for the primary in light of the success of the candidate I've doubted the most.

Nearly one year to the day after she accepted the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination, former Vice President Kamala Harris made history once again. It just wasn’t in quite the way that she might have liked.

As is often the case with her, it started with her doing surprisingly well. Despite having lost to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election by an unexpectedly wide margin, the first post-election 2028 primary polls found her far above the rest of the Democratic field. For as early as it was, was a very big deal. Since the creation of the modern primary system, there are precious few examples of candidates who have lost the nomination after leading by as much as Harris did so early on. Even in the rare examples where this has happened, such candidates always remained the frontrunner for years, never relinquishing their leads until the start of the actual voting.

But Kamala Harris is not one to be burdened by what has been. After leading her closest opponent by a staggering 25 points as recently as this April, she has officially accomplished what took the likes of Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani years to pull off. Her polling lead has completely disappeared. Ever since the end of August, she has been locked in a tie for first place with her second-closest competitor. At long last, the contest for the 2028 Democratic nomination now lacks even an on-paper frontrunner. As things stand, it is well on its way to be the party’s most open-ended contest since 1992.

In this sense, everything that has transpired has been as I anticipated. I refrained from giving Harris top billing in my rankings even when she had her aforementioned 25-point lead and wrote an entire update centered around her weaknesses even while she still held a clear advantage in the race. What was unexpected, at least to me, was who finally made the jump to match Harris in the polls. It wasn’t Pritzker, AOC, Pete, or any of the number of currently-relevant politicians I’ve given nods to in past lists. Instead, it was California Governor Gavin Newsom—the one high profile contender I’ve made a point of leaving out of my lists ever since I bumped him out of the Top 10 in April.

If it were only a polling boost, this might have been possible to ignore. Even this early in the primary season, we’ve already gotten our fill of hype-driven polling boosts that have turned out to mean nothing (see: Booker, Cory A.). What has turned my head is the way in which Newsom has garnered attention in recent weeks. More than just a prominent figure in the news, he became something of a Main Character of Liberalism, suddenly treated by Democrats nationwide as if he were already the party’s candidate. It’s a fascinating and genuinely novel phenomenon—one that hints at the possibility of an entirely new kind of candidacy beyond the usual progressive/centrist dichotomy. Here’s how it shakes up what we know about the race.

(Dis)honorable Mentions

Booted from the Top 10: Governor Gretchen Whitmer

In theory, there is no reason why Gretchen Whitmer should not be a top contender. Since 2016, Democratic voters have been obsessed with winning decisive swing states, and she has won twice by landslide margins in the heart of the Midwest. They have also long prioritized candidates who can actually fulfill their promises, and she passed a strong liberal agenda with a narrow majority during her time in power. Even if the passage of time and maturation of other candidates makes her less of the singular top-tier candidate that she was in 2024, the fundamentals are still quite strong for her. All she needs do is act like she wants to win the nomination.

Whitmer, however, has not done this. Rather than use her position as a sitting governor of a major state to publicly oppose Trump, she has instead gone out of her way to work with him. Such a stance is so moronic as far as the 2028 primary goes that it makes me feel as if she might not actually be lying when she says that she has no interest in running and is focused entirely on Michigan. Whether or not this is true, the fact that I’m even thinking about it is enough to boot her out of serious consideration.

Booted from the Top 10: Governor Tim Walz

There is a great irony that defines Tim Walz’ presidential hopes: his standing is so low precisely because his fundamentals are so strong. He has an extremely solid resume. He is well known and generally well-liked nationally. As far as positioning against Trump is concerned, he “gets it”—he has been publicly and forcefully hitting the administration since day one. The only problem for him is that people just do not care about any of this. While every other liberal who has managed to be the center of a news cycle has managed to get a boost out of it, none of Walz’ endeavors have been met with any public response. As of now, his numbers are so low that he no longer shows up on polling trend lines.

Granted, this isn’t exactly new information; I gave a similar analysis of Walz in my last list. But after watching another yet another politician’s resistance to Trump give them a huge boost, the lack of interest in Walz’ efforts has only become all the more damning. The vast majority of voters just want to move on from 2024, and the minority of those who do not are backing Harris, not him. Perhaps he deserves better, but his poor standing just it is what it is, especially as the progressive lane becomes increasingly crowded.

The Top 10